Week 17 making a bet odds, picks, guidance: Who has the edge in rivalry games?

Week 17 of the NFL season offers us a number of contention games with playoff implications on the road Sunday.

what is worth looking at from a having a bet point of view? And what are the greatest performs to assist you're making wise wagering choices?

having a bet analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, delusion and sports making a bet analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & counsel's Seth Walder and football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz present their insights into the video games with tips and picks.

notice: traces are from Caesars Sportsbook until otherwise indicated.

the brand new England Patriots (-three, forty one.5) are favorites over the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal matchup with AFC playoff implications. The Dolphins (-225 to make playoffs) will start backup QB Teddy Bridgewater towards a Patriots team coming off two devastating losses to the Raiders and Bengals. Whom do you love in this matchup, and what do you suppose of the Dolphins' odds to make the playoffs?

Fulghum: i love the Patriots in this spot. it's concerning that Teddy Bridgewater is nineteen-4 in opposition t the spread as a starter on the highway in his profession, however the note is out on Teddy ATS on the books. With the Dolphins going north to Foxborough in December to face the elite circulate protection that invoice Belichick still coordinates, i love this spot for new England to win and cover in a low-scoring game. I do not like Miami's possibilities of making the playoffs. I in fact suppose the Dolphins lose, not handiest this game, however a week 18 online game against the Jets that could be a pseudo play-in online game. i would bet the Jets to make the postseason with extra conviction than the Dolphins.

  • 18hSeth Walder

  • 2dKyle Soppe

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    Schatz: i will go in opposition t the grain and pick Miami +three here. there may be no doubt Tua Tagovailoa has been more desirable than Bridgewater this season, however it is a pattern measurement of 60 flow attempts for Bridgewater. in accordance with his efficiency over the past couple of years, I don't see any explanation why Bridgewater is not capable of operate the Miami offense that a lot worse than Tagovailoa -- and probably stronger than what Tagovailoa has been for the past 4 weeks. sure, the Patriots' defense is awfully effective, however that unit is simply nineteenth in DVOA in opposition t passes in the center of the field, including twenty third on passes to the intermediate core area (10-19 air yards) that the Dolphins love so tons. That contains Jaylen Waddle's 42-yard landing reception on a blown insurance on fourth-and-7 when Miami beat New England in Week 1. I also think Miami will end up as the seventh seed in the AFC, no matter if it wins this week or beats the Jets next week.

    Marks: i like the Pats and the beneath during this online game. The Dolphins' offense has been sputtering as of late (27th over the last six weeks). The Pats' defense is their spine, and the Fins will not best have a tough time scoring, however they will have concern converting third downs (only 25%). The Pats' offense is nothing to put in writing home about either. Small lean toward the Pats, but i like the beneath.

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    Chris Canty and Chris "Mad Dog" Russo debate whether the oddsmakers got the factor spread correct between the Packers and Vikings.

    The eco-friendly Bay Packers (-three.5, forty eight) are on a three-video game win streak and welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Lambeau field on Sunday. The Vikings have received an NFL-record 11 one-ranking video games this season, together with their past two games in opposition t the Colts and Giants. in the meantime, green Bay upset the Dolphins remaining week and is still alive within the NFC playoff race. despite a 12-three listing, the Vikings are underdogs to the 7-eight Packers. What are your concepts on this line, and whom do you love in this NFC North showdown?

    Fulghum: I entreated viewers of "daily Wager" three weeks in the past no longer to count out the Packers as a playoff team. on the time, they were 5-eight and +900 to make the postseason. taking a look at their schedule, i thought it became very conceivable they might go 4-0 down the stretch. My largest difficulty become basically the game they simply won, on the road in Miami, on a big leisure drawback vs. the Dolphins. Now they have got two games in opposition t division opponents in Week 17 and 18 at Lambeau field. I suppose the appropriate team is appreciated during this matchup with Minnesota, and i like Aaron Rodgers to continue his record of dominance at home in the iciness months and get the Packers to 9-eight -- and quite possibly an NFC wild-card berth.

    Schatz: it be getting tiring speaking about how the Vikings don't seem to be pretty much as good as their checklist, but, you understand, the Vikings don't seem to be as good as their listing. The Packers are eleventh in football Outsiders' DVOA scores and the Vikings are only twenty fifth despite their 12 wins. The Packers' offense ranks sixth in DVOA seeing that Week 10. eco-friendly Bay has the worst run defense in the league through DVOA, however how a good deal can the Vikings take advantage? Their run video game is only 26th in DVOA. Justin Jefferson will get a big online game -- the Packers are most effective 16th against WR1s -- but I believe the Packers will take home the win. Our numbers also basically desire the under in this video game, as eco-friendly Bay performs at a really slow pace and division games tend to be somewhat lower scoring.

    Dolan: i would must take Minnesota +three.5. ordinary, Minnesota has been the stronger crew for the totality of the season. americans want to make fun of the Vikings having eleven one-score wins, however let's be honest -- somehow, somehow, Minnesota continues to win. The Vikings also beat the Packers 23-7 in Week 1, and while that was a long time ago, have the Packers basically turned issues around in this three-game win streak? green Bay may still have crushed the Bears, Rams and the Dolphins. The Packers have momentum on their facet and anything to play for when it comes to playoff seeding, but bettors are getting three and a hook with the Vikings, so i would must play Minnesota.

    Marks: i'll lay the points with the Packers at home in chilly January. The Vikings already clinched a playoff spot. If the Eagles beat the Saints at 1 p.m. ET, then Minnesota isn't any longer enjoying for the 1-seed -- and the Packers may be playing simply to get in. Rodgers and his receiving corps are ultimately in a groove and have a juicy matchup towards the Vikings' 31st-ranked move defense.

    talking of still alive, the Pittsburgh Steelers are combating in December yet once more after defeating the Raiders on a video game-winning power to cap off Christmas Day. They face a Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 35) squad that needs a victory to still have a chance at profitable the AFC North and securing a home playoff video game. This game has the lowest over/under of the week by using three points. Can the Ravens stroll away with a victory, or will Mike Tomlin and the Steelers pull off the upset on New year's Day?

    Fulghum: i really like Mike Tomlin. he's mind-blowing. earlier than the season, I laughed at the books posting a win complete of seven.5 for a guy who's by no means had a dropping season in 15(!) years on the sideline. regardless of all the struggles this season, here they're one win away from cashing that over. I do not consider it be a lock by way of any stretch of the imagination in opposition t this group, specially on the street, but the Ravens are struggling mightily to rating facets. I easily just like the under 35 points in this classic contention online game. First team to 17-20 points doubtless wins the online game. picking a side is a toss-up right here, however identifying the full is a snug wager. this is going to be a traditional Ravens-Steelers slugfest.

    Schatz: i could take the Steelers +2.5 right here, as they rank 10th in offensive DVOA and fourth in protecting DVOA since Week 10. Baltimore is twenty fourth on offense in that equal time body, even though additionally 2d on protection. The Ravens like to run the ball, but the Steelers' protection is sixth in opposition t the run. Ravens-Steelers games are always shut, which implies always taking the underdog and the points when these teams meet up.

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    what is your favourite player prop for Sunday?

    Fulghum: Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing TDs (-115). In a "ought to-win" online game towards a protection permitting 281.5 passing yards per video game this season (thirty second in the NFL), with a fully suit cadre of weapons to work with on the offense, I feel Rodgers supplies a old efficiency. the entire for this online game is 48, and the Packers' team total is 26.5 points. The market is expecting this game to characteristic numerous scoring, and that i agree, exceptionally on the eco-friendly Bay side.

    Dolan: Justin Fields every time TD scorer against Detroit. In a 31-30 loss to the Lions past this season, Fields had 147 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Fields will also be successful again against a Detroit protection that ranks twenty eighth at stopping the run. Fields has eight speeding touchdowns this season, which is the second-highest mark for a quarterback behind Jalen Hurts. here's additionally the optimum complete on the slate for Week 17, so oddsmakers expect facets.

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    Doug Kezirian says the Colts are trending downward and expects the Giants to get the win on Sunday.

    what's your favorite guess for Sunday's video games?

    Fulghum: Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions over 52. now we have had a lot of fun betting video games to head over the total this season at Ford field. Six of eight Detroit home games have long gone over this yr, and they are doing so quite simply. Lions home games are clearing the closing complete by way of an ordinary of 9.0 PPG this season, readily the highest mark within the league. Jared Goff is tremendously extra productive at home. Justin Fields now receives to run on a quick track. These are both most accommodating defenses in the league; Chicago ranks 31st in PPG allowed (26.2), and Detroit ranks thirty second (26.7).

    Schatz: Let's go along with the ny Giants -5.5 in opposition t the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts' offense is such a multitude, rating last in the league in DVOA. they're on pace to rank as one of the crucial 20 worst offenses ever tracked via DVOA in view that 1981. although the Giants aren't nearly as good as their 8-6-1 list, they are enormously superior than the Colts. They also have a lot more motivation, in view that they're taking part in for a playoff spot. seek the Giants in particular after they get into the purple zone; long island ranks 2nd on offensive DVOA in the crimson zone, trailing handiest Tennessee, while the Colts' defense, which is tenth average, falls to twenty fourth when opponents get inner the 20.

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