NFL division round making a bet suggestions: 5 props that pop

regardless of gutting misses on Austin Ekeler (zero consists of within the second half) and Joe Mixon (eight yards brief), my picks acquired returned on track closing week. likely my favorite win became observing Isaiah Hodgins put up a profession effort (eight-one hundred and five-1). although, i'm now not as bullish on the Giants' passing video game this Saturday at Philly.

With just just a few weeks left, the frenzy to 55% is precise. using ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, we're working toward an considerable beginning to 2023!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas metropolis ChiefsSaturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, GEHA container at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas city, Missouri

prefer: Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 17.5 receiving yards

fable managers were justifiably pissed off with Etienne's underwhelming receiving function. whereas averaging just 2.1 catches and 18.6 receiving yards per contest capped the 2nd-year working returned's ceiling, it has additionally kept his projected totals low and created prop-popping opportunities. Coming off a 1-12-0 receiving stat line in the Jags' comeback win over the Chargers, leaning right into a prop associated with Etienne's pass-catching prowess might appear foolhardy, but the data suggests otherwise.

Jacksonville posted the seventh-optimum flow fee (66.2%) from Weeks 10 during the wild-card circular. When trailing, the Jags passed on the fourth-optimum fee. that means an ample variety of ambitions for Etienne. So why did he see only 1 seem to be versus the Chargers?

as it turns out, la is stingy against RBs by means of the air, having given up the fifth-fewest receptions and sixth-fewest receiving yards to the place. Conversely, Kansas city has been beneficiant to pass-catching backs, permitting the second-highest completion percentage on RB pursuits as well as the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs (forty five.6 yards per video game).

moreover, one trap is an anomaly, because the Ettiene recorded 13 multiple capture video games over the usual season. He additionally managed six games with at least one capture over 20 yards. The handiest different running returned with extra such games ... changed into Christian McCaffrey. ability is at all times a tiebreaker, and only one of those grabs clears the above line.

manhattan Giants at Philadelphia EaglesSaturday, eight:15 p.m. ET, Lincoln economic container, Philadelphia

select: Daniel Jones OVER forty five.5 dashing yds

The development of Isaiah Hodgins has been scrumptious. Darius Slayton additionally emerged as a serviceable bye week fill-in all over the normal season. And Richie James might surprise at Philly on Saturday. however none of those avid gamers are elite separators who determine to win their matchups when dealing with off in opposition t the Eagles' shutdown secondary. That is going to drive Daniel Jones to keep his legs churning, extending performs and ripping off chunk yardage.

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    Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-most QB scrambles on the season. moreover, the Eagles have given up the fifth-most yards per scramble (9.2 yards). To that end, Jones isn't simply purchasing time along with his legs, he's continuously executing designed runs. basically, he pulled off seven designed runs ultimate week in Minnesota. He has additionally managed six straight video games with a single rush over 10 yards and managed a 15-yarder in 4 of those six efforts.

    Jones is precise 5 in basically every advanced rushing metric. His legs are a part of the team's offensive online game plan. The strength of Philly's protection is going to force manhattan to remain artistic on the ground. I believe Brian Daboll to scheme it up and use each ounce of Danny Dimes' physical skill.

    pick: Devonta Smith OVER 63.5 receiving yards

    Smith closed out his second typical-season crusade as fantasy's WR9 standard, rating inner the true 10 in receptions (ninety five), receiving yards (1,196) and YAC (485). Jalen Hurts made large strides as a passer, averaging well-nigh 31 flow makes an attempt per online game, which unfolded unexpected alternatives for Smith.

    the former Heisman Trophy winner drew regular opportunities, managing as a minimum eight appears in 9 straight efforts. in fact, Smith recorded a 30.1% goal share (at the back of simplest Davante Adams) from Weeks 10 to 18. moreover, the 24-yr-historic continually transformed, posting eighty receiving yards in 11 of 17 games this season.

    He figures to produce again Saturday when he takes on a Giants defense that gave up 70 or greater receiving yards to a single pass-catcher sixteen instances right through the 12 months. whether he draws simple insurance from Fabian Moreau (as he did again in Week 14) or is assigned softer insurance, Smith may still put up numbers, specifically given a projected complete of forty eight elements.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo BillsSunday, three p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, ny

    opt for: Josh Allen OVER .5 INT

    The extra times a player throws the ball, the greater possible an error will ensue. Allen is accurate eight in circulate makes an attempt, averaging very nearly 34 per online game. in consequence, he's tied for the third-most interceptions (14) subsequent to Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins over the usual season. additionally, he has thrown five picks over his previous three efforts.

    Cincinnati is beneath league general at generating picks with just 13 within the average season. besides the fact that children, given a ramification of 5.5, this game figures to be shut with lots of from side to side. If Allen starts to press, the Bengals are stout sufficient to capitalize. interestingly, Allen complete the average season with 36 passes that should still have been intercepted (QB3). His accuracy moreover waned down the stretch, as his off-goal percent increased from 10.9% over Weeks 1 through 6 to 17.1% from Week 7 during the wild-card round. That units up properly for this over, and for the Bengals to cowl.

    Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ersSunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

    decide on: Deebo Samuel OVER 54.5 receiving yards

    might also the Bay rejoice as a result of Samuel is again to fitness and setting up an effective rapport with Brock Purdy. Samuel led the 49ers' receiving corps in goals (9), receptions (6) and yards (133) within the team's 18-factor win over Seattle last weekend. additionally, Purdy focused Samuel on over 28.1% of his routes (forward of Brandon Aiyuk, who became targeted on 21.9% of his routes). Samuel might not smash triple-digit numbers towards Dallas, but his shine figures to solid some colour on the star.

    Samuel is in possession of mythological YAC means, crushing after the catch and after contact. now not handiest did he list 480 yards after the catch (WR8) over 13 regular-season games, however he also managed 9 games with 10-plus yards after contact (tied for the position lead with handiest Chris Godwin). both issues determine to confound the Cowboys, a protection that has allowed the tenth-most yards after the trap per reception (4.4) to wideouts this 12 months.

    Late season injuries have plagued the Cowboys' secondary, leading to a considerable uptick in yards allowed. in fact, Dallas gave up the fourth-most yards to opposing WRs (763) over the last 4 weeks of the commonplace season. That units up nicely for a participant like Samuel, who's suitable three (in the back of best Cooper Kupp and Ja'Marr Chase) in catches over 40 yards.

    Bonus

    select: Ja'Marr Chase OVER 83.5 receiving yards

    Tall shouts to Kyle Soppe -- whom I've outlined in the intro of this column each and every week seeing that its inception -- for tweeting this juicy nug.

    Chase has cleared the over on a receiving yards props eight of 12 times throughout the commonplace season, at a expense of sixty six.7%.

    observe Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF

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