NFL Week 17 making a bet counsel: five props that pop

The G-guys fell to the Vikings, however Minnesota's defense remained beneficiant to big apple's ability-position neighborhood, allowing Daniel Jones and Darius Slayton to hit their respective overs. New England tried to hold Ja'Marr Chase in assess, but the former LSU standout still managed seventy nine receiving yards, which become 7.5 yards greater than the line proposed by way of Caesars. An sudden online game script and a leg injury each worked towards Jamaal Williams in Week sixteen.

ultimately, three of my 5 picks hit. i am inspired to enhance on those results this go-around. utilising ESPN's metrics database and a few suggestions from stats ace Kyle Soppe, i'm right here to aid you comfortable the bag in delusion and on the books.

Minnesota Vikings at eco-friendly Bay Packers (-three, forty seven.5)Sunday, four:25 p.m. ET, U.S. Lambeau container, green Bay, Wisconsin

opt for: Aaron Rodgers OVER 256.5 passing yards (-133)

Miscommunications. Dropped passes. injuries. It has been months of inefficiency from Rodgers and the Packers' offense. green Bay, despite the fact, is still in playoff contention and hosting an uber-generous Vikings offense within the myth finals. That put Rodgers in a top-10 hero spot, which feels especially on company this yr.

  • 1dESPN betting and delusion Analysts

  • 1dScott Van Pelt

  • 2dMackenzie Kraemer

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    Rodgers is outside of the good 12 QBs in terms of passing yards per game (222). At home, despite the fact, he is managing 10% extra yards per circulate. With Aaron Jones experiencing knee and ankle illnesses, it's doubtless Rodgers shoulders the load Sunday, tossing the ball at least 35 times. If he's throwing the ball more frequently and farther down the box then at least 250 passing yards is viable.

    That modest aim turns into much more attainable when considering the fact that the matchup. Minnesota has allowed essentially the most passing yards to QBs on the season (four,441) and the 2nd-most passing yards over the past four weeks (1,215). Christian Watson's hip damage is definitely regarding, but Rodgers would not need an elite arsenal to take competencies of Minny's secondary. The Vikings have given up greater than 300 passing yards in four of the past five outings. Mac Jones, Mike White, Jared Goff and Daniel Jones had been the opposing headliners in those matchups. hardly a murderer's row.

    choose: Kirk Cousins OVER 0.5 interceptions (-108)

    Cousins has been a steady producer for myth managers all season, averaging 18 fantasy points. attached to one of the most fastest offenses in the league (2.24 tempo of play, QB4), Cousins is averaging 39.5 pass makes an attempt (QB3) and 6.7 crimson zone makes an attempt (QB2). That variety of extent, in aggregate with an elite flow-catching neighborhood, interprets into good-eight ordinary fable numbers.

    while Justin Jefferson has saved Cousins a variety of instances, throwing the ball forty times a game can inevitably lead to errors, peculiarly in a matchup like this one.

    whereas this game is rarely in prime time, or not it's still a highlight matchup with massive postseason implications. I do not think that sets up Kirk for a clean trip, mainly when noting that green Bay owns the 2d-highest turnover rate on the season. moreover, Vegas has the Vikings listed as 3-aspect underdogs. pressing can get any QB in obstacle, but Cousins has proved more at risk of errant selections when chasing The Pack. in reality, Captain Kirk has thrown a decide on in every loss to eco-friendly Bay. His INT cost is additionally drastically greater outside (3.4%) than indoors (1%).

    As a Bears fan, i'm screaming SKOL. however as an analyst, i'm having a bet on messy.

    Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6, 52.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford field, Detroit

    prefer: Jared Goff OVER 278.5 passing yards (-127)

    Get your lineups set for your Week 17 fable soccer matchups with analysis for this weekend's games, remaining-minute pickup alternatives, and our take on the biggest studies of the week.

    The Playbook: Week 17Mike Clay breaks down every game from all angles, with projections and assistance for key players.

    Karabell's fable scorching SeatMark Andrews leads listing of gamers who make for difficult Week 17 lineup choices

    ultimate-minute pickupsMatt Bowen offers names to trust if you would like a bye-week fill-in or when you are streaming at a position.

    additionally See: Week 17 rankings | daily Notes

    Goff, league winner? It sounds remarkable, but he is presently myth's QB10 overall. He has also handed for over 300 yards and recorded distinct TD efforts in three of his previous 4 games. As 6-aspect favorites versus a banged-up Bears squad, there may be trepidation that he may not should air it out. Yet, Goff has cleared 330 passing yards in all four games as a favorite this season (and he has been a true-four FF QB in each and every of those outings).

    whether or not it's the grit my colleague Daniel Dopp (and ESPN fable's resident Lions fan) refers to or the matchups or whatever greater, Goff has been on a tear seeing that Turkey Day. the previous Ram has posted a circulate expense of essentially 63% (eleventh optimum) from Weeks 13-sixteen. Even more advantageous, greater than 75% of the crew's yards have come by means of the air over that window of time. Noting that this game is at Ford field best betters Goff's probabilities of staying on track, as he has managed 10 extra delusion aspects per game and an aDOT of 7.sixteen when at home.

    The matchup is plum, as smartly. Rolling out a decimated protection, Chicago ranks thirtieth in yards per circulate and yards per capture while coming in 31st in force cost and sack expense. Given the ease with which opposing offenses have thrown in opposition t the Bears, Goff could not even should put the ball within the air 30 instances to clear the above line.

    Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 40.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

    prefer: Chris Godwin OVER sixty eight.5 receiving yards (-119)

    regardless of a gradual start to 2022, Godwin has ROI'd for PPR enthusiasts down the stretch, averaging eight.2 catches and 18 fable elements because the Bucs' Week eleven bye. whereas Tom Brady has struggled to connect with Mike Evans (45% goal conversion rate), his chemistry with Godwin has flourished. basically, Godwin has maintained a catch fee of essentially 89% during the last two weeks (63% catch rate for all other Bucs).

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    The final time these two groups met, Godwin drew 13 looks. it's loads of bites at the apple! and those nibbles might turn into chomps when dealing with a Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most yards per flow to slot receivers during the last month. Godwin has owned the slot in 2022, leading the league with 6.7 slot targets per game.

    the important thing to hitting the over on yardage is both large performs or loads of extent, and Godwin definitely sets up to crush the latter half of the equation. He figures to flirt with seven grabs, 70 yards and right-12 WR numbers on Sunday.

    Indianapolis Colts at new york Giants (-5.5, 39)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

    decide upon: Saquon Barkley OVER seventy seven.5 dashing yards (-a hundred twenty five)

    A vintage-searching Saquon dominated for a good deal of 2022, averaging over 18.4 delusion elements (RB5) and clearing 20 myth points in returned-to-again outings. Rostered on 40.2% of championship contending teams, Barkley has thrived as the engine of digital teams as well as the Giants' offense (82.2% chance share, RB3). He figures to go off again because the 5.5-element favourite in an all-critical trip versus Indy on Sunday.

    The Colts' run defense turned into stout to start the season. since mid-November, although, Indy's run-stopping unit has slipped, giving up the tenth-most yards to RBs earlier than contact from Weeks 10-sixteen. additionally, Indianapolis has struggled to tackle rushers, enabling 1.88 yards per raise from Weeks 14-16 (up 11.2% from Weeks 1-13). Resolutions are standard on New yr's Day, but i wouldn't are expecting a turnaround from an embattled Colts membership on the highway and dealing with an RB with 17 breakaway runs (RB2) and 86 refrained from tackles (RB4) on the season.

    Given Barkley's volume (18.9 includes per video game, RB3) in tandem with the fact that he has posted as a minimum 80 speeding yards (and drawn at least eight receiving looks) in consecutive efforts, the above line feels available. Heck, with dissimilar runs of 15-plus yards in 5 games this 12 months, he may additionally not even need 18 carries to post eighty rushing yards. within the closing yr of his deal and with the Giants still in playoff competition, Barkley figures to run complicated and far. he is a true-three play this weekend.

    choose: Parris Campbell OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-119)

    Campbell is my favorite WR sleeper for Week 17. His 4.three speed and large-play potential have consistently proven up after the catch this season (three.three yards per goal). He also ranks ninth in routes run (520) while recording nearly 77% of his snaps within the slot. That units up nicely when dealing with a Giants secondary that has allowed the eighth-most yards per slot completion. moreover noting Nick Foles' affection for the slot -- he has averaged extra yards per try to the slot than all other passes over the direction of his career -- Campbell figures to kick off 2023 each busy and productive.

    follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF


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