NFL wild-card weekend: choicest prop bets, picks and assistance

The NFL wild-card weekend starts off Saturday afternoon and with new extra time rules -- both groups should have a chance to possess the ball -- courtesy of last season's wild AFC Championship online game between the bills and Chiefs. The weekend's slate elements a number of new faces, including young quarterbacks, skilled receivers and tight ends and dynamic operating backs taking the field. All of that put together skill plenty of alternatives for prop bets.

need some final-minute guidance while placing collectively your parlays for the weekend?

Our ESPN fable soccer consultants have obtained you coated. they've studied and analyzed all of the avid gamers throughout the league from a fantasy point of view all season and are able to offer insight on which player props are essentially the most profitable for games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Which quarterback do you think will go over or under his passing complete this week?

Mike Clay: Josh Allen beneath 255.5 yards. My projection for Allen (220 yards) assessments in well below this mark, which is hardly ever shocking seeing that he reached 256 yards in precisely seven (forty four%) of sixteen games right through the ordinary season. Allen hit 300 yards within the two ordinary-season conferences with Miami, however both had been close video games (including a loss); whereas, Buffalo is a massive 13-aspect favorite this week with Skylar Thompson under core for Miami. observe that in advance of 2022, Allen was 7-1 in opposition t Miami and reached 256 yards in only two of those video games. Miami allowed 250.5 pass yards per online game during the typical season, which was fifth optimum in the league however still under this prop.

container Yates: Daniel Jones might sail previous his 238.5 prop, as he faces a Vikings protection that he carved up once already this season (334 passing yards on Christmas Eve) and that allowed the second-most passing yards within the league throughout the normal season. The Vikings searched for answers all season on protection and did not locate them ... as a minimum not yet.

Matt Bowen: i like the under on Joe Burrow's passing totals at 272.5, given the Ravens' coverage structure versus the Bengals quarterback right through both regular-season video games. In those matchups -- Week 5 and Week 18 -- Baltimore lowered the blitz price (below eleven%) and performed heavy split-safeguard insurance. cowl 2 and quarters. Get two deep excessive to cap vertical routes down the container, with seven (and infrequently eight) dropping in insurance. The theory here is to limit the deep-ball throws and in-breakers, staples of the Bengals' route tree, while forcing Burrow to take the unders. consequently, Burrow failed to properly 220 yards passing in each video games played this season. and i would expect the equal coverage script again from the Baltimore defense on Sunday nighttime.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Allen's prop just pops off the web page, would not it? He threw for greater than 300 yards in both of his meetings with the Dolphins this season, and let's now not overlook that the Dolphins allowed the sixth-most passing yards during the regular season. he's with the aid of a ways my favourite from this list, although I suppose Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy are fairly solid bets to exceed these totals, too.

Eric Karabell: Josh Allen threw for four hundred yards within the first Miami meeting and 304 yards in the 2nd one, and the best motive he may not get close these totals once more is as a result of this online game might possibly be so lopsided in his want after half-hour (no Tua Tagovailoa for Miami, remember). truly, even then, I think Allen will retain throwing. It appears like a low line for Allen, who threw 103 passes in the Miami video games. I see the Dolphins piling on the aspects, and customarily that ability Allen is throwing.

Eric Moody: Tom Brady has a much better possibility of passing for 272.5 yards towards the Cowboys on Monday nighttime than most americans feel. He has surpassed 272.5 passing yards in 77.eight% of his video games this season. Brady leads the league with 490 completions and 733 attempts. And he's 7-0 in opposition t the Cowboys in standard-season games, averaging 277.8 passing yards per video game. With wet climate and winds within the forecast in San Francisco, i'm gravitating towards Brock Purdy going under 224.5 passing yards. The Seahawks scored just 20 aspects towards the 49ers throughout the typical season, and San Francisco will doubtless depend closely on the working game to get an early lead and dominate the time of possession.

Watch the Dallas Cowboys take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers handiest on 'Monday nighttime football' to cap off wild-card weekend. best on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+

Which working back do you consider will go over or below his dashing total this week?

Clay: Dalvin prepare dinner over 71.5 yards. cook went over seventy one rush yards in 10 (59%) of 17 games all the way through the ordinary season and assessments in with a projection of 90.5 yards in opposition t ny this week. prepare dinner averaged 15.5 includes per online game all through the general season, and of the 12 RBs who had 15-plus carries in a video game in opposition t long island, 9 reached seventy two yards (84.1 typical). The Giants allowed 2,019 rushing yards (fourth most) and 5.2 yards per elevate (second highest) to RBs all through the average season.

Clay: Ezekiel Elliott over 48.5 yards. Elliott's dashing yardage prop is egregiously low for a player who hit forty nine yards in 80% (12 of 15) of his video games, whereas averaging 58.4 yards per online game right through the commonplace season. His projection is sixty two.1 yards on 15 carries, although he required best 10 consists of to attain 52 yards towards Tampa Bay when these groups met in Week 1. The Bucs' run defense has been elite in past years, but now not so a great deal in 2022, having allowed 14 RBs to hit 49 yards in a game. Backs averaged four.4 yards per raise towards Tampa Bay, which is actually the 14th optimum in the league.

Yates: Kenneth Walker III beneath 59.5 speeding yards looks like near the most efficient bet here, because the 49ers didn't concede a 60-plus yard rusher in a online game until Week 17 of the usual season. whereas latest weather situations could lead on to greater operating of the ball (the forecast calls for a wet Saturday in San Francisco), the Niners' defense is a brick wall.

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    Bowen: Travis Etienne Jr. over seventy five.5 speeding yards meshes with the Jags' offensive game plan versus a leaky Chargers run protection. He should see run-video game volume during this one. and i would focal point on Etienne's rushing attempts with 11 personnel within the game (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs). throughout the standard season, Etienne totaled 615 yards rushing -- on ninety nine incorporates -- with three extensive receivers on the box. that's 6.2 yards per raise -- against an L.A. defense permitting 5.4 yards per elevate versus eleven personnel. reduce the formation and assault the sides. Run downhill on zone schemes. Or pull the look after to carve out some sunlight hours here. And Etienne has some home run skill, too. Get one explosive play here and that over will hit.

    Cockcroft: I think each of the running backs from the Seahawks-49ers online game have decent odds of exceeding their totals, notwithstanding Christian McCaffrey stands out on account of the strength of the matchup. On one hand, the 49ers at times saved his workload in assess during the ordinary season, which most likely casts doubt upon how many consists of he could get in this video game, however I additionally feel that changed into by using design to preserve him sparkling for these important video games. or not it's probably the most fulfilling matchup any working back has this weekend.

    Karabell: When doubtful, go with the ultimate, and this week that skill Christian McCaffrey. First, only 5 NFL defenses authorised extra speeding yards per game than the Seahawks. 2d, McCaffrey tore up the Seahawks for 108 rushing yards in Week 15. try not to overthink issues. sure, the 49ers can throw with their rookie QB, however why chance things when you've got McCaffrey?

    Moody: Saquon Barkley might come to be with essentially the most speeding yards after wild-card weekend. he's the Giants' top offensive playmaker and will see at least 20 speeding attempts. The Vikings' offense is loaded with skill, so long island will must hold it off the container to win this game. The Giants will seem to run the ball correctly and convert third downs as they have all season. expect Barkley to be busy against the Vikings on Sunday.

    Which WR/TE do you believe will go over or under his receiving complete this week?

    Mike Clay: Ja'Marr Chase over seventy seven.5 yards. Chase's projection checks in at 86.7 yards after he reached seventy eight yards in eight of 12 video games (67%) throughout the common season. Chase's quantity has been nothing short of elite, as he's averaged 11.2 objectives per game, together with at least 11 targets in 4 straight outings. Chase has caught at least seven passes in eight straight video games, six of which resulted in seventy eight-plus yards. he is been focused at least 10 times in all four profession video games towards Baltimore, three of which resulted in 86-plus yards. The Ravens had been up and down towards WRs this season, however they've allowed the fifth-most yards to the position, and 9 receivers have hit 78 yards in opposition t them.

    Yates: With Mike Williams out, the door is open for Austin Ekeler to go over 36.5 receiving yards against the Jaguars. Ekeler surpassed 36.5 yards in 9 of 17 games this season, seeing notably strong extent when both Williams or Keenan Allen become unavailable.

    Bowen: i'm taking T.J. Hockenson over 47.5 receiving yards after looking at the Week sixteen head-to-head tape versus the Giants. In that video game, Hockenson caught 13 of 16 aims for 109 yards with two ratings. however here's more about how he's deployed as a drive examine for quarterback Kirk Cousins versus a Giants protection that registered a blitz rate of forty three.1% within the standard-season matchup. Hockenson caught 6 of seven targets versus the blitz, logging forty seven yards and a landing. short throws to the flat, inner stick routes, more. i am making a bet on the previous Hawkeye right here to make himself purchasable to Cousins as an below target when the Giants flip up the heat.

    Cockcroft: both of the Buccaneers' excellent broad receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, are alluring picks at these projected totals, however Evans is the one who stands out as more of a fringe receiver dealing with a defense that struggled to comprise these on the backyard in the common season's final weeks. The Bucs should still be aggressive in what possible will be a move-oriented online game, and i'd expect Tom Brady will deserve to throw forty times.

    Karabell: i could persist with the expenses and go all-in right here with their properly vast receivers, too. Stefon Diggs failed to proper this line in either matchup this season, however there is greater on the line this time, and Buffalo's game plan versus Miami changed into truly to throw. Dawson Knox had ninety eight receiving yards towards the Dolphins in Week 15. i love him on the over, but here is the playoffs, and i keep on with the desirable options. Diggs and Gabe Davis for the over.

    Moody: Richie James over 47.5 receiving yards. James has surpassed 47.5 receiving yards three times during the last four weeks. Most of his routes are from the slot, where he has a very favorable matchup towards the Vikings' cornerbacks.

    Is there every other prop on the board you're enjoying?

    Bowen: i'd look at Christian McCaffrey over 114.5 complete yards. McCaffrey had 138 total yards -- on 32 touches -- in opposition t the Seahawks' protection in Week 15. whereas his total extent might decline with Deebo Samuel again in the mix, McCaffrey's versatility in the 49ers' passing game makes me consider an awful lot more comfy taking this bet. are expecting monitors, backfield releases and flexed alignments. Kyle Shanahan will scheme aims for McCaffrey to get free in house in trap-and-run cases.

    Moody: Dak Prescott over 0.5 interceptions. Prescott has averaged 1.25 interceptions per online game this season, and his passer score drops drastically beneath drive. The Buccaneers don't blitz plenty, however they do use unconventional 4-man rushes.


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